Intelligence Report 2024 in English

The year of escalation

The fast-changing geopolitical context has an influence on our internal security. Increasing tensions at the international level bring along internal security problems, caused by both state and non-state actors.

Escalation of hybrid threats

The VSSE notices that in 2024 foreign powers continue to undertake hybrid acts to destabilise Western democracies. Russia especially seems to have turned up its actions across Europe. The Russian hybrid tactics expand from Eastern to Western Europe and contain a broad set of methods (cyber-attacks, sabotage, disinformation, etc.). Russia increasingly relies on freelancers and organised crime for their disruptive acts. One thing that stands out throughout the Russian threat is its ever more aggressive approach. Nevertheless, Russia is not the only state to use hybrid campaigns. A more assertive China also uses a diverse range of methods against the West.

Terrorist threats persist

The main terrorist threat continues to come from jihadist movements such as Islamic State (IS) and in particular its Central Asian branch in the Khorasan Province (ISKP). Their online propaganda encourages lone actors to perpetrate violent acts in Belgium and Europe. Moreover, this propaganda increasingly reaches minors. One worrying trend is that nearly one in three persons of interest in our terrorism-related cases are underage. “This is not only a challenge for security services, but also for actors in social prevention focussing on young people,” says Administrator-General F. Bostyn.

Likewise, foreign developments have an impact on the terrorist threat in our country. The sudden fall of the Assad regime put forward once again the question of what to do with ‘Belgian’ Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTF) in Syria. Additionally, the conflict between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah provides fertile grounds for polarisation in our country.

Whole-of-society approach

As a security service, the VSSE continues to reinforce the cultivation of the security culture in Belgium. Since the integration of the National Security Authority (NSA) early 2024, the role of the VSSE has only grown in this process. For instance, the amount of security clearances has increased significantly over the last five years. The number of clearances rose from 2,428 in 2020 to 15,366 in 2024.

Cooperation with Belgian and international partners, both from the public and private sector, remains essential in a world that knows no borders when security is concerned.